Ammonium sulfate, 9 November 2026: the export quote has not moved in two weeks, but steel-grade material fell to a $191-201 export equivalent because from mid-November some compactors can no longer get an inspection

The export quotation for Chinese ammonium sulfate has not moved in two weeks. Standard caprolactam-grade material was assessed at $210-220/t fob on 9 November, the same range as the week before, and compacted material eased $5 at the top of the range to $225-235/t fob. Brazilian compacted held at $255-265/t cfr.

The domestic market moved a great deal more. Steel-grade ammonium sulfate in Shanxi fell to ¥1,025/t ex-works. Once compacting and export costs are stripped out, that is roughly $201/t fob. Material in Inner Mongolia and the northwest was reported at ¥930/t, or about $191/t on the same basis. Caprolactam-grade in Shandong sat at ¥1,240-1,250/t, equivalent to $202-204/t fob.

So steel-grade feedstock is now worth less, on an export-equivalent basis, than the finished caprolactam-grade product it competes with for compacting capacity. That is an unusual inversion in a market where the export quote is supposed to set the domestic floor. It is not a demand signal. It is the market pricing an administrative deadline.

The deadline

Compactors who are not self-regulated will not be permitted to apply for export customs inspection after the middle of November. The provision has been circulating for some weeks; in early November it started to change behaviour.

Non-self-regulated compactors have stopped buying steel-grade material at the rate they were buying it in October, because material they cannot get inspected is material they cannot ship. Buying interest fell in the grades that feed that channel, and prices followed it down. Nothing in this sequence involves a change in fertilizer demand. It involves a change in who is allowed to file papers.

Three consequences follow, and they are worth separating because they are often collapsed into one.

First, the export pool narrows. Self-regulated producers and compactors keep the channel; the rest exit it. Chinese compacting capacity is not concentrated in the self-regulated category, so the volume that remains available for export is likely to be a smaller share of national capacity than the tonnage statistics imply. A buyer counting Chinese compacted supply by production capacity will overestimate what can actually load.

Second, the steel-grade discount does not transmit. In a normal week a wide feedstock discount pulls compactors in, they compress the margin, and the export offer follows the feedstock down. That mechanism needs inspection at the end of it. With part of the sector cut off from inspection, the arbitrage has nowhere to go, so Shanxi can fall without the fob offer falling with it. Anyone assuming that a ¥930 print in Inner Mongolia means a cheaper compacted offer should ask a different question than the price.

Third, prompt-tonnage premiums widen. This is the same two-tier structure that appeared in late October, reinforced. A cargo already inspected, or held by a producer certain of its eligibility, carries more value in December than it did in October. Buyers with a fixed vessel window are bidding for a smaller set of tonnes than their supplier list suggests.

Supply is not the problem for sellers

Alongside the inspection rule, four separate constraints are pressing on the sell side, all in the same direction.

A second round of export allocations has emerged, but suppliers describe availability as limited, and the reason they give is that they are still working through existing commitments rather than holding back. Highsun has not issued a new sales tender. Eversun is taking a month-long plant turnaround. Fujian Tianchen plans a turnaround from early December into mid-January.

That is a market in which producers do not need to chase a foreign bid. Standard material is being offered at $220/t fob and above and is finding limited interest at that level, which is why the assessment has been flat rather than firm. Suppliers are not pressing, and buyers are not biting. A quiet market at a held price is a different thing from a weak market, and this one is quiet.

There is also physical evidence that the flow is running. Hengyi is due to deliver around 63,000t of Chinese ammonium sulfate to Belgium on 11 November. European buyers are structurally short after a season of production curtailments, and that is where Chinese tonnes have an opening that Brazil currently does not offer.

Where the buying actually is

Turkey is the clearest sized requirement in the market: an importer seeking around 20,000t of standard caprolactam grade and 30,000t of compacted material for November or December shipment, covering both grades in one enquiry.

India remains the structural buyer. Fact has awarded its long-term ammonium sulfate supply tender to the three lowest-priced trading firms, following a process that sought up to 600,000t over two years. Offers for Chinese caprolactam-grade material into India are around $220/t fob, against freight of roughly $40/t for a 35,000t cargo to the east coast. A fresh enquiry on India’s east coast was also reported, linked to that award.

Southeast Asia held at $250-260/t cfr, but the support is freight rather than demand. Vietnamese importers were looking for standard caprolactam-grade material, and Philippine buyers were testing the market for re-exported or Japanese-origin cargoes rather than committing to Chinese tonnes. Freight from China to the region firmed to $47-50/t for a 6,000-8,000t vessel, with 20,000t parcels heard around $35/t. On a $210 product, that is a 17-24 percent freight load on a small cargo, and it explains why a flat fob has not produced a flat cfr.

Brazil is covered rather than hungry. Compacted was assessed stable at $255-265/t cfr, supported by deals at Itaqui, Santos and Paranagua inside the weekly range. Santarem was indicated at $270-275/t cfr for December shipment and continued to attract little acceptance. After 773,000t in November, the Brazilian requirement is met for the near term, and a soft December would matter more to January than to December.

Europe moved up. Standard grade firmed to €290-310/t fob northwest Europe, with the top of the range reflecting NPK and ASN demand and the bottom reflecting compactors. Granular rose to €350-370/t fob, tracking gas values and higher CAN offers out of Germany. European production curtailments are still in effect, which is why European prices can rise while Asian prices sit still.

What to watch

The inspection cut-off, in practice. The rule matters less than its enforcement. Watch whether inspected tonnes become scarce in the second half of November, and whether prompt premiums widen beyond the $5-10/t that is currently visible. If they do, the market has accepted the constraint; if they do not, the constraint is softer than the paper suggests.

Whether steel grade keeps falling. A continued slide in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia with a stable fob would confirm that the discount is trapped domestically. A stabilisation there would suggest compactors have found an eligible route and the pool is wider than feared.

Turkish acceptance. A 50,000t two-grade enquiry is the largest single test of the sell side’s resolve this month. A deal at $220/t fob for standard grade validates the held range. A deal at $210 says the quiet market was hiding a seller who needed the tonnage.

December and January availability. Three turnarounds and a narrower inspection channel both reduce what can load in the first quarter. The flat quotation is not evidence of ample supply.

Prices as assessed on 9 November 2026. Market information from our own trading desks and trade sources; figures are indicative and move daily. Terms are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.