China Ammonium Sulfate Market Splits Into Two Tiers

Prices have shifted since this report was published. Standard caprolactam-grade still sits at $210-215/t fob, but compacted material has eased to $210-225/t and the domestic ex-works price has slipped below the export assessment for the first time this cycle. For the current read, see the 9 October market update. The structural analysis below still stands.

The short version: China’s ammonium sulfate market is no longer one market. Export-grade caprolactam material is trading around $210-215/t fob and firming, while tonnage that does not clear export inspection is flowing back into the domestic market and capping inland prices. The domestic spot benchmark sits at ¥1,313/t — up 37.8% year on year — and mainstream producers lifted ex-works quotations repeatedly through September. Buyers comparing a domestic quote with an export quote are now comparing two different commodities.

The two prices that now matter

Two things in that table matter more than any single number.

First, export fob and domestic ex-works are trading at near parity. Shandong caprolactam-grade at ¥1,310/t ex-works is worth roughly $212/t fob, against an export assessment of $210-215/t fob. In a market where the two are level, an exporter has no spread to concede from. That is the single most important fact for anyone negotiating a Chinese offer right now.

Second, the domestic average and the domestic caprolactam benchmark are telling different stories. The all-grade spot benchmark near ¥1,313/t blends caprolactam-grade with coking-grade and steel-grade material, and the two halves of that blend are being pushed in opposite directions by the same policy.

Inside the domestic market

This is where the real change has happened, and it is worth slowing down for.

The headline is strong. The domestic benchmark has held around ¥1,313/t through early October, a gain of 37.76% year on year. Through September, mainstream producers raised ex-factory quotations repeatedly rather than testing the market once. Caprolactam-based producers kept bulk offers on a gradually firmer footing through mid-month, and buyers followed the movement rather than resisting it.

September is a stocking month, and this year the stocking was real. September is traditionally the window in which overseas buyers build their positions for the northern-hemisphere season, and the demand that arrived was genuine rather than speculative. Domestic compound fertilizer plants and granular/compacted ammonium sulfate manufacturers bought actively to cover their own forward commitments. Export-oriented granulators — the plants that take crystalline material, compact it into 2-4mm granules and ship it to Brazil — were the most active buyers of all, because their own order books were full.

Supply has stayed tight. Several plants that had been through maintenance shutdowns had not recovered to full operating rates by the end of the quarter, and the additional tonnage that returns to the market from those restarts arrives gradually rather than at once. Availability of prompt bulk material has therefore been thinner than the price level alone would suggest.

And the demand base is broader than fertiliser. Domestic Chinese offtake is not only agriculture. Ammonium sulfate is consumed by compound fertilizer producers, by potassium persulfate and other industrial chemical manufacturers, by rare earth mining operations and by leather processors for deliming. That spread of end-uses means domestic demand has more independent supports than a fertiliser-only market would, and it is a large part of why domestic values have held while export assessments moved in steps.

The structural shift underneath. Ammonium sulfate produced as a by-product of caprolactam has progressively become the dominant source of supply in China. Caprolactam itself is trading around ¥14,109/t, up 62.9% year on year — a strong caprolactam market means caprolactam plants running hard, which means more by-product ammonium sulfate. In the medium term that is a genuine loosening force on supply. But it also means the market’s quality centre of gravity is shifting toward caprolactam-grade material, which is precisely the grade that clears export inspection most easily — and that is the second half of the story.

Why the two markets split: the inspection gate

On 16 July 2026, China’s customs authority added ammonium sulfate to the list of goods subject to mandatory pre-shipment export inspection, under Announcement No. 97 of 2026, covering HS codes 3102.21.0000 and 3102.29.0000. The regulatory condition “B” now applies to both.

In practice this replaced the previous exemption-and-release arrangement with an inspect-first, release-second regime. An exporter must apply to its local customs office for statutory inspection, submit to on-site verification and sampling, and obtain a release certificate before completing customs declaration. For a trade that had run for years on exemption, that is a structural change to how tonnage reaches a port, not a procedural detail.

The consequence is the two-tier market this article is about:

So the same regulation is simultaneously tightening the export pool and loosening the domestic market. Export buyers see a smaller pool of compliant tonnage and pay more for it. Domestic coking-grade sellers see a competitor — exported tonnage — suddenly unable to leave, and they compete with it inland. Neither effect can be read off a single price series, and anyone tracking only the fob number will miss half the market.

A further allocation of inspection quota was made in mid-September, which eased the immediate bottleneck for qualifying suppliers but did not change the underlying arithmetic: export volumes now run on allocated inspection quota rather than on demand alone. With 2026 tracking below last year’s record export pace, sellers expect fourth-quarter quota availability to tighten rather than loosen.

Costs: why the floor is higher than it looks

Two cost inputs matter, and they are pulling in opposite directions.

Sulphuric acid is cheap. The principal raw material for synthetic-route ammonium sulfate has traded at low levels across both 60-day and three-month windows. For synthetic producers that is a stable, supportive cost base — it removes the risk of a cost-driven spike, and it also removes any urgency to discount. Cheap acid is not a reason for prices to fall; it is a reason they can hold without pressure.

Caprolactam is expensive. At ¥14,109/t ex-works the caprolactam market is running far above last year, and where caprolactam runs hard, by-product ammonium sulfate supply rises. This is the one clearly bearish input in the picture, and it operates with a lag measured in quarters rather than weeks.

Liquid ammonia is down. Domestic liquid ammonia around ¥2,540/t, down 23.7% year on year, has eased the nitrogen cost base relative to last year. It has not translated into lower ammonium sulfate prices, because ammonium sulfate pricing is set by its own supply constraints — inspection quota, plant operating rates and compaction demand — rather than by nitrogen replacement value.

The Q4 question is quota, not demand

If you are planning fourth-quarter offtake, the variable that will decide your landed cost is not Brazilian or Southeast Asian demand. It is how much inspection quota is released.

The chains that matter:

• Brazil compacted demand remains the demand engine. Compacted material is assessed at $250-255/t cfr, with northern Arc markets heard up to $260/t cfr. Enquiries have picked up, but business has been slower to convert than the enquiry flow suggests — buyers are testing levels rather than committing.
• Granulator restocking is the transmission belt. Brazilian buying supports granulation margins, granulation margins drive compactor restocking, and compactor restocking sets the bids at Chinese domestic auctions. Break any link and domestic prices move within days.
• Inspection quota is the tap. Allocation rounds, not order books, decide how much Chinese tonnage can physically leave. That is why a firm domestic market and a thin export offer stack can coexist.
• Post-holiday resumption is the near-term swing factor. After the National Day holiday, export volumes are widely expected to increase as inspection workflows normalise — but if that increase arrives into a quota-constrained quarter, it will not translate into softer export prices.

What buyers should do now

Separate the two markets in your own analysis. If you are buying for export from China, the number that governs your cost is the fob assessment and the inspection-quota availability behind it. If you are buying domestic Chinese material, the number that governs is the inland benchmark — and it is being held down by diverted export tonnage that your supplier may not be able to move. Do not assume the two will converge.

Confirm grade against the COA, every lot. The inspection regime has made the physical quality of the offer more economically consequential than it used to be. Moisture, free acid, particle size and water-insoluble content decide whether a lot clears inspection, and clearance now decides whether that lot can be exported at all. Ask for the lot COA before agreeing a level.

Treat compaction capacity, not just material, as the scarce item. The Brazilian programme runs on compacted granules. Crystalline availability does not guarantee granule availability, because granulation capacity is a separate constraint from material supply. If your requirement is granular, secure the granulation slot rather than assuming material availability implies it.

Do not read a domestic discount as an export opportunity. Some buyers see a low inland coking-grade price and assume it can be bought and exported. Under the current inspection regime that is exactly the material most likely to be blocked at the inspection stage. A cheap quote that cannot obtain a release certificate is not a cheap quote.

Watch the allocation calendar, not just the price. In a quota-rationed export market, availability moves before price. If you have a fixed loading window, start the conversation earlier than the price signal would suggest you need to.

What we are watching next

The base case into the fourth quarter: export fob firm behind a rationed quota, domestic caprolactam-grade supported by cost and parity, and domestic coking-grade still capped by diverted tonnage. The market’s structure — not its headline price — is what changed this quarter.

Sourcing ammonium sulfate from China

We supply standard, granular (compacted) and crystalline ammonium sulfate from China to agricultural, compound-fertilizer and industrial buyers, loading at Qingdao or Tianjin with full export documentation, including the inspection release certificate.

• Ammonium Sulfate — the full grade range and typical specifications
• Granular Ammonium Sulfate — for direct soil application; the grade Brazilian programmes specify
• Crystalline Ammonium Sulfate — for compound fertilizer blending and industrial use
• How to import ammonium sulfate from China — documentation, inspection and shipping, step by step

Send your destination port, the grade you need, your volume and your required loading window, and we will confirm availability and quote on that basis.

On pricing in this article. The figures above are indicative market assessment levels for the grades and bases referenced, drawn from our own market monitoring and published industry data. They are not offers and do not represent a quotation for any specific parcel, origin or shipment window. Ammonium sulfate prices vary with grade, production source, packaging, parcel size, destination and freight, and are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.