Ammonium sulfate, 28 October 2026: the second allocation is out and the offers have not moved

A second export allocation was released this week. The price did not move. That combination is the whole story, and it says more about the next six weeks than any single offer does.

As of 28 October 2026, standard caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate held at $215-220/t fob China. Compacted held at $230-240/t fob. One supplier was showing standard at $222/t and compacted at $240/t — above the assessment, in a market where almost nothing is trading. The Shandong ex-works benchmark for caprolactam-grade was steady at ¥1,230/t, about $201/t fob equivalent.

The numbers, 28 October 2026

Allocation is permission, not tonnage

The second allocation has been released and suppliers are still not offering much export volume. The stated reason is limited availability. Read it literally: the tonnage exists, the paperwork now exists too, and the seller still prefers to hold.

That is a deliberate position, and it is affordable because the domestic market is not forcing anyone’s hand. At ¥1,230/t ex-works, the domestic netback is around $201/t fob equivalent. The export price sits $14-19/t above that. A seller with allocation who does not need cash this month can wait for $225. A seller without allocation cannot sell abroad at any price.

So the second allocation did not add supply. It converted a group of sellers who could not ship into a group who could — and who are choosing not to, yet.

There is one place this logic breaks. Allocation usually carries a validity window. If a holder cannot ship inside the window, the allocation is worth nothing, and holders who overestimated their ability to place tonnage will appear in the market in the last weeks of that window at whatever clears. That is the only reliable source of cheap Chinese ammonium sulfate, and it is a timing trade, not a price view.

London removed 6pc and dated it

The UK government is removing tariffs on fertilizers — ammonium sulphate included — from 26 November 2026 until 31 December 2027. Standard UK import duty on the affected products runs 6-6.5pc. Urea, amsul, NPKs, DAP, MAP, NP and PK are on the list; AN and CAN are not. Tariffs on Russian and Belarusian origin stay in place.

For a buyer this is arithmetic, not politics. On a 200t parcel at $215/t, 6-6.5pc is $2,580-2,800 of duty that stops being payable. On 1,000t it is $12,900-14,000. That does not change the fob price by a cent, and it does change the CFR landed comparison against domestic UK supply by the full amount — from 26 November.

Two practical consequences. Cargo loading after 26 November into the UK is worth more than the same cargo loading before it, which argues for booking the later window rather than the earlier one. And a UK buyer negotiating today has a legitimate reason to hold a Chinese seller to the current fob level: the duty relief is the buyer’s margin, and it disappears if it is given away in the price.

The UK farming press has called the measure minimal. It is minimal against the level of fertilizer prices. It is not minimal against a 200t buying decision.

Colombo at $315 and Brazil at $255

Two prices this week frame the range.

An importer in Sri Lanka received an offer at $315/t cfr Colombo in big bags. The bulk fob assessment is $215-220. The gap is bagging, small-parcel freight and a destination that takes few tonnes — but it is the clearest evidence available that bagged small lots clear well above the bulk print. If you are buying under 500t in bags, the bulk numbers in this article are not your market.

In Brazil, compacted was assessed at $260-265/t cfr with deals reported in that range, and bids at $255/t cfr were rejected. That is a floor being tested and holding. Brazilian buyers are not desperate and sellers are not discounting, which is the same standoff as China, one ocean away.

The cap nobody is talking about

Ammonium sulfate’s nitrogen is currently priced at a large premium to urea’s nitrogen. On published nutrient values, amsul stands at roughly $11.79 per unit N cfr Brazil against granular urea at about $8.35 per unit N on a Middle East netback — a premium of the order of 40pc.

That is the reason to be careful with this market, and it is not a bearish call on ammonia or on sulphur. It is a statement about substitution. A compound fertilizer producer or a blender can move nitrogen between urea and amsul. When the amsul premium is this wide, the marginal buyer has an incentive to switch, and the amsul price stops being able to rise on supply tightness alone.

Nitrogen is otherwise well supported: European gas went through €100/MWh this week, a second major European producer has warned about plant shutdowns, and the marginal European cost of granular urea is far above import parity. Chinese granular urea sits at $425-430/t fob for standard and $415-420/t for secondary material. None of that is bearish for the complex. It does mean amsul cannot lead it higher from this premium.

Three questions that decide whether you buy now

Does the cargo need to load before the first quarter ends? Then cover. The binding constraint this year has been allocation, not price, and allocation does not get easier approaching the holiday. A $5 concession is not worth an unfilled window.

Are you shipping into the UK? Then load after 26 November if you can. The duty relief is dated, it is 6-6.5pc, and it is yours only if the cargo clears customs inside the window.

Can your line take standard instead of compacted? The spread is $15-20/t fob. If standard works, that is the cheapest tonnage in this market today, and the second allocation makes it marginally easier to actually get.

What to watch

The Central American tender closing 3 November for 12,000t of compacted caprolactam or granular grade, shipment 20 November to 10 December, is the next real print. A tender result tells you where a buyer with a fixed window will actually transact, which is worth more than another $222 offer.

Then watch for the first allocation holder who ships rather than waits. One confirmed export at or above $225/t fob would confirm the sellers’ thesis. One at $210 would tell you the validity window is doing the work.

Prices as assessed on 28 October 2026. Market information from our own trading desks and trade sources; figures are indicative and move daily. Terms are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.