Ammonium sulfate, 27 October 2026: China fob holds at $215-220 while sellers sit on tonnage
China fob is $215-220/t and the offers on the table are $220-230. The gap between the two is not a forecast — it is a standoff, and it says which side is under less pressure.
· 5 min read
Ammonium sulfate did not move far this week. How it failed to move is the useful part.
As of 27 October 2026, standard caprolactam-grade held at $215-220/t fob China. Compacted rose to $230-240/t fob, ten dollars firmer on the week. The Shandong ex-works benchmark for caprolactam-grade moved up to ¥1,230/t — about $201/t fob equivalent.
Read those two numbers together. The export price now sits $14-19/t above the domestic netback, and sellers still are not selling.
The week in numbers
| Grade and basis | 22 Oct 2026 | 27 Oct 2026 | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard caprolactam-grade, fob China | $210-220/t | $215-220/t | ▲ low end +$5 |
| Compacted, fob China | $220-230/t | $230-240/t | ▲ +$10 |
| Caprolactam-grade, Shandong ex-works | ¥1,230/t | ¥1,230/t | flat (≈$201/t fob) |
| Compacted, cfr Brazil | $255-265/t | $260-265/t | high end firmer |
| Standard, cfr Brazil | $245-250/t | $245-250/t | unchanged |
| Standard, cfr Southeast Asia | $250-260/t | $250-260/t | unchanged |
| Standard, fob NW Europe | $314-331/t | $314-331/t | ▲ +$6 low end |
| Granular caprolactam-grade, fob NW Europe | €375-403/t | €376-406/t | ▲ |
Offers at $220-230, deals at nothing
Most Chinese suppliers have not returned to the market with fresh volume. The reason given is that they expect higher prices. The operational reason is simpler: they do not need to sell this week. Several are clearing outstanding commitments first. A handful have put target levels out at $220-230/t fob, which nobody has paid.
An offer with no transaction behind it is not a price. It is a position.
The market is currently full of positions.
None of this is unusual in a period when allocation is the constraint rather than demand, and it is the reason the fob number has held while the domestic number only stopped falling. Two markets, two different brakes.
The one hard trade of the week
The only confirmed business came out of Korea: 6,000t of standard caprolactam-grade at mid-$230/t cfr, for arrival in the second half of November.
Take off $15-20/t of freight from China and the fob equivalent lands at the top of the Chinese assessment, not the middle. That is the part worth keeping. Korean buyers see Chinese offers directly, buy in small parcels, and have no reason to overpay — so a mid-$230 cfr print says November availability is worth paying for, today, rather than waiting.
It also tells you where the ceiling is. $230 cfr to Korea is not a market where $240 fob is going to clear.
Brazil is waiting on a number that has not been published
Brazilian buyers have gone quiet. Compacted offers sit at $265-270/t cfr, against a $260-265/t assessment, and liquidity is thin. There is no urgency on the buy side and no discounting on the sell side.
The blocker is not price. It is the second round of Chinese export allocation. Brazilian importers know it exists, do not know the volume, and cannot tell from what they have whether Chinese supply tightens or loosens into the first quarter. Buying into that is a coin flip with freight attached. Currency has added to it — the real has been moving and Brazilian importers are pricing in dollars.
Three questions that decide whether you buy now
Does the cargo need to load before February? If yes, covering early is the better trade than chasing a $5 concession. Allocation, not price, has been the binding constraint on Chinese ammonium sulfate all year, and allocation does not get easier closer to the holiday.
Can your process take standard instead of compacted? The spread between the two has widened to $15-20/t fob in China, from around $10 at the start of the month. If standard works for your blending line, that spread is the cheapest tonnage in the market this week.
Are you buying on a sulphur view? Don’t. Sulphur into North Africa fell to $845-900/t for Q4 from $990-1,010/t in Q3, and Tampa dropped to $615/t from $705/t. That removes an argument for higher ammonium sulfate prices — it is not an argument for lower ones either, because caprolactam and coking by-product grades never carried sulphur as a direct cost. Grade matters more than the input here.
What to watch
Firm into November on availability rather than demand. The risk is not a price fall. The risk is that the first buyer who genuinely needs tonnage tests an offer at $225/t and gets filled at $215, and the whole $220-230 stack quietly resets.
The signal to watch for is one confirmed Chinese export at or above $225/t fob. Until that prints, this market is quoting, not trading.
Prices as assessed on 27 October 2026. Market information from our own trading desks and trade sources; figures are indicative and move daily. Terms are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.
Frequently asked questions
What is the ammonium sulfate price per tonne in China in October 2026?
On 27 October 2026, standard caprolactam-grade was $215-220/t fob China and compacted material $230-240/t fob. The Shandong ex-works benchmark for caprolactam-grade was ¥1,230/t, equivalent to roughly $201/t fob. Standard into Brazil was $245-250/t cfr, compacted $260-265/t cfr, and Southeast Asia $250-260/t cfr.
Why is the export price higher than the domestic price?
Because export tonnage needs valid allocation and domestic tonnage does not. Sellers with allocation who are not in a hurry can hold an offer $14-19/t above their own domestic netback; sellers competing in the home market cannot. A fob price sitting above the ex-works equivalent is a signal about availability, not about demand.
Did any ammonium sulfate actually trade at the higher level?
One cargo did. A Korean importer bought 6,000t of standard caprolactam-grade at mid-$230/t cfr for second-half November arrival, which nets back to roughly $210-215/t fob China after $15-20/t freight. Everything else in the market this week was offers without confirmed business behind them.
Should buyers wait for the second round of Chinese export allocation?
Only if the shipment window is the second quarter. Buyers who need to load before Chinese New Year are exposed to allocation, not to price, and waiting for a $5 concession to solve an availability problem is the wrong trade. Buyers with a later window can reasonably wait for the allocation volume to be published.
Does the falling sulphur price make ammonium sulfate cheaper?
It makes one production route cheaper. Synthetic ammonium sulfate made from ammonia and sulphuric acid carries sulphur as a direct cost, and sulphur into North Africa fell to $845-900/t for Q4 from $990-1,010/t in Q3. Caprolactam-grade and coking by-product grades do not carry that cost the same way, so a falling sulphur price widens the spread between routes rather than resetting the whole market.
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Ammonium sulfate
(NH4)2SO4 · 21-0-0-24S · crystalline and granular