Ammonium sulfate, 10 November 2026: the upper end of the export range gave way by $5 while the lower end held, and the reason sits in urea rather than in ammonium sulfate

The top of the ammonium sulfate range came off on 10 November. Standard caprolactam-grade was assessed at $210-215/t fob China, $5 lower at the high end than the $210-220 of the previous day. The low end did not move. No seller has cut a price to make a deal.

The shape of that move matters more than its size. A range that narrows from the top is a range in which buyers stopped paying the upper number, not one in which sellers went hunting for volume. Offers at $215-220/t fob are still standing, and one supplier is quoting $212/t fob Shandong for standard caprolactam-grade material this week. Buying interest was described as subdued, with most buyers taking a wait-and-see position.

What they are waiting for is not ammonium sulfate.

Urea set the tone

Chinese prilled urea held at $338-345/t fob on the same day, which looks stable until you read the rest of the nitrogen page. Egyptian granular for Europe fell $7.50/t to $500-520/t fob. Middle East granular fell $5/t to $430-440/t fob. Brazilian granular fell $2.50/t to $460-475/t cfr. The Nola barge fell $3/st to $425/st. The whole complex drifted lower on weak demand and thin activity, with affordability ratios against corn and wheat back to early-August levels.

Ammonium sulfate is bought as nitrogen and as sulphur, and in compound fertilizer it substitutes against urea on the nitrogen unit. When the nitrogen complex loses $3-7/t in a session, the amsul seller quoting the top of a $10 wide range is quoting into a moving reference. That is why the top came off while the bottom held: the upper offers were priced against a market that had shifted, and the lower offers were already at the floor.

There is a second drag, and it is specific to China. The sulphate of potash-adjacent grades are not the issue; the issue is that a buyer comparing an amsul cargo with a urea cargo in the same week is looking at two products whose export economics are not remotely similar.

Seven dollars and sixty-one dollars

On 10 November, caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong was assessed at ¥1,240-1,250/t ex-works, which converts to roughly $202-204/t fob after export costs. The export quotation was $210-215/t fob. The gap between what the material costs to put on a ship and what it is offered at is $6-13/t.

Now run the same calculation on urea. Shandong prilled was ¥1,740/t ex-works, about $277/t fob equivalent. The Chinese prilled quotation was $338-345/t fob. The gap is $61-68/t.

Two nitrogen products, the same province, the same week, and one carries an export premium roughly nine times the other. That gap is not a margin and it is not a demand signal. Ammonium sulfate faces no export allocation: a producer with material and a buyer with a letter of credit can execute. Urea faces one, and the allocation is scarce, administered and valuable, so its value shows up as the distance between domestic cost and export quotation.

The practical consequence for a buyer is about how the two prices behave rather than what they are. An ammonium sulfate offer is cost-pass-through with a thin commercial margin on top, so it moves when Shanxi or Shandong cost moves, and it can be modelled. A urea offer is partly an administrative price, so it can step by tens of dollars when policy moves rather than drift by two. If you are budgeting nitrogen for the first half of 2027 and you need a number you can defend in a board paper, amsul is the easier line item.

Standard softened, compacted did not

Compacted material held at $225-235/t fob, unchanged on the week, while standard lost $5 at the top. The compacting premium is therefore intact at $10-25/t over standard, and in practice nearer the top of that band for material that already carries inspection.

That divergence is the same two-tier structure that has been building since late October, and the inspection calendar is what drives it. Compactors who are not self-regulated cannot apply for export customs inspection after the middle of November. A standard-grade cargo is a producer’s problem; a compacted cargo is a compactor’s problem, and part of the compacting sector is losing the ability to file. Buyers who need compacted tonnes in December are therefore bidding for a smaller pool than the producer list suggests, which is why that end of the market has not followed standard grade down.

Anyone reading a $5 fall in the standard range as a soft market should check which grade they actually need. The two are no longer trading on the same story.

Where the demand is, and is not

Turkey is the only sized requirement currently visible. An importer is seeking around 20,000t of standard caprolactam-grade for December shipment. That is a modest parcel, and it lands in the tightest part of the inspection calendar, which makes the price it clears at more informative than its tonnage.

Brazil is covered rather than hungry. Compacted eased $5 at the top of the range to $255-260/t cfr after a heavy November programme, and there is no urgency in the enquiries reaching Chinese sellers. Standard caprolactam-grade into Brazil sits at $245-250/t cfr, and the compacted premium over standard into that market has compressed rather than widened.

Southeast Asia held at $250-260/t cfr, but as before the support is freight rather than demand. On a $210 product, a $35-48/t freight bill for a handysize parcel is a 17 to 23 percent load, and it is the reason a flat fob has not produced a flat cfr.

Europe remains the structural short and the reason Chinese tonnes keep moving west. Standard grade firmed to €326-348/t fob northwest Europe and granular to €393-416/t fob on the latest weekly comparison, both tracking gas and higher CAN values rather than Asian signals. European production curtailments are still in effect. That is a market paying a premium for prompt cargoes, and it is where the next firm enquiry is more likely to come from than from Brazil.

What to watch

Whether $215 holds. The top of the standard range is now the test. A Turkish deal at $215/t fob confirms that sellers are holding and buyers are simply absent. A deal at $210 says the quiet market was concealing a seller who needed the tonnage, and the floor moves.

Urea’s next print. Ammonium sulfate did not fall on its own balance sheet and it will not recover on one. If the nitrogen complex finds a floor once Indian enquiry materialises after the Diwali break, the amsul top of range should re-form without any change in amsul supply.

The compacting pool in December. The inspection cut-off is a rule; enforcement is the market. Watch whether inspected compacted tonnes become scarce in the second half of November and whether the premium over standard widens past $25/t. That would confirm the two-tier structure is hardening rather than fading.

Cost at the bottom of the chain. Shanxi steel-grade and Inner Mongolia material set the floor under everything else. A continued slide there with a stable fob would confirm the discount is trapped domestically by inspection eligibility rather than transmitting into export offers.

Prices as assessed on 10 November 2026. Market information from our own trading desks and trade sources; figures are indicative and move daily. Ammonium sulfate is offered FOB, CFR and CIF, with payment terms agreed per order and confirmed in the sales contract.