Ammonium Sulfate Market Report — Week 41, 2026

This is our market report for the week of 12-16 October 2026 — a week in which the Chinese export price and the Chinese domestic price stopped moving in the same direction.

The short version: fob China firmed to $210-220/t for standard and $220-230/t for compacted, while the Shandong domestic benchmark fell to ¥1,230/t — about $200/t fob equivalent. The export premium has reopened, and it has reopened because tonnage is rationed, not because demand has surged.

The week in numbers

All figures are indicative market assessment levels from our own monitoring, not offers.

The export premium reopened

Through September the domestic ex-works price and the export assessment sat close enough that an exporter had no margin to give away. That is why offers went up and stayed up.

This week they separated again, in the opposite direction to the one that matters for a seller. Shandong caprolactam-grade fell to ¥1,230/t ex-works, which converts to roughly $200/t fob. River producers lowered caprolactam-grade to ¥1,200/t. The export assessment, meanwhile, moved up to $210-220/t.

That is a $10-20/t export premium where a fortnight ago there was near-parity. It is not there because overseas buyers are paying up. It is there because most allocation holders are already sold out of export volumes and the offer stack is thin. A price that rises while the domestic market falls is a price set by availability, not by demand — and it is the kind of price that disappears the moment allocation is released.

The one trade that tells you where the real market is

Two cargoes this week bracket the range.

A river supplier sold 5,000t of standard at $200-205/t fob for mid-October shipment to Southeast Asia — at or just below the low end of the assessment. That is what physical standard material actually clears at when a seller needs to move it.

At the other end, one supplier is asking $230-235/t fob for standard and $240/t fob for compacted. Nothing was confirmed at those levels. The gap between $205 and $235 for the same grade in the same week is the clearest measure of how thin and how fragmented this offer stack is.

Compacted was the stronger side of the market. A river supplier sold 10,000t at $236/t fob for November shipment to Brazil, and compacted fob China was assessed up to $220-230/t on continued Brazilian demand and higher standard values.

Demand: Brazil is buying, Europe is short, Southeast Asia pays freight

Brazil is the demand engine and it is not waiting. Compacted trended higher to $250-265/t cfr, with suppliers becoming reluctant to engage below $255/t cfr later in the week and some holding offers at $260/t cfr and above. Buying interest concentrated in Paranaguá, where participants expect requirements for the second corn crop to keep importers active. Stronger sentiment across the global urea complex added support.

Southeast Asia moved up to $250-260/t cfr on higher Chinese offers, but freight is doing a lot of the work rather than product value. A 6,000-8,000t cargo from China to Southeast Asia was heard at $43-46/t, while north China to Malaysia was quoted as high as $50/t. Rising freight lifts delivered prices even when the fob does not move, which flatters cfr assessments and compresses netbacks.

Europe remains the tightest link. Standard caprolactam-grade was assessed at €275-290/t fob northwest Europe and granular at €335-360/t fob, with Chinese compacted indicated at €360-365/t fca. Spot activity was limited and concentrated in southern Europe, with many participants holding off ahead of this week’s industry conference in Prague. Firmer urea and natural gas values continued to underpin offers, and some producers held standard grade at €290/t fob, though liquidity at the top of that range stayed scarce. Higher freight into some Mediterranean destinations is eating into netbacks and capping how far suppliers can push.

Turkey continues to absorb Chinese tonnage. Three cargoes are scheduled — one to the Cenal power plant around 18 October, one to Aliaga on 27 October, and a further cargo of about 60,000t on 2 November — with another vessel carrying roughly 30,000t anchored in the Bosporus without a declared final destination. Turkey took around 1.09mn t of Chinese ammonium sulfate from January to August, against about 1.03mn t a year earlier.

The US was flat. Nola barge prices were unchanged on muted activity as farmers prioritised harvest, and CBOT corn fell after the October WASDE raised the US production forecast to 407.3mn t for 2026-27.

Costs: relief is coming, but not into offers yet

Sulphur remains the swing input for synthetic-route material. Even if Tampa settles at $550-650/lt, that is $55-155/lt below the previous settlement — a material cut, but sulphur markets are expected to stay elevated on a historical basis even after it lands.

The sequencing matters. Cost relief reaches synthetic-route producers first, and the grades that dominate Chinese export supply are constrained by allocation rather than by production cost. Expect the lower sulphur number to show up in negotiation leverage before it shows up in quoted prices. Our production source guide explains why the routes do not substitute for one another.

What buyers should do now

Ask for allocation before you ask for price. In a market where sold-out suppliers are the norm, confirmed tonnage for your loading window is worth more than a $5/t concession from someone who cannot ship.

Read a rising fob against a falling domestic price correctly. It is a scarcity signal, not a demand signal. It argues for locking volume early and for expecting the spread to compress once the next allocation round lands.

Match grade to destination. Brazil takes compacted; Southeast Asia and ANZ blending programmes take crystalline; Europe is short of standard specifically. The grades price on different bases and the discounts are not interchangeable.

Treat every cfr figure as parcel-specific. With China-Southeast Asia freight moving between $43 and $50/t depending on origin port and parcel size, a delivered number quoted for one cargo does not transfer to another.

Do not assume the domestic slide stops at the border. Domestic values have fallen for several consecutive weeks. If allocation is released in volume, export fob has room to follow them down. Buyers with a fixed window should secure, not speculate.

Next week’s watch list

The base case into next week: export fob held up by allocation scarcity, domestic values still soft beneath it, Brazil and Europe firm, and everything hinging on when the next allocation round is announced.

Sourcing ammonium sulfate from China

We supply standard, granular (compacted) and crystalline ammonium sulfate from China to agricultural, compound-fertilizer and industrial buyers, loading at Qingdao or Tianjin with full export documentation.

• Ammonium Sulfate — the full grade range and typical specifications
• Granular Ammonium Sulfate — for direct soil application and bulk blending
• Crystalline Ammonium Sulfate — for compound fertilizer production and industrial use
• How to import ammonium sulfate from China — documentation, inspection and shipping, step by step

Send your destination port, the grade you need, your volume and your required loading window, and we will confirm availability and quote on that basis.

On pricing in this article. The figures above are indicative market assessment levels for the grades and bases referenced as at 15 October 2026, drawn from our own market monitoring and published industry data. They are not offers and do not represent a quotation for any specific parcel, origin or shipment window. Ammonium sulfate prices vary with grade, production source, packaging, parcel size, destination and freight, and are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.