Ammonium Sulfate Market Report — Week 40, 2026

This is our market report for the week of 5-9 October 2026 — the first full week back after China’s National Day holiday, and the first week in some time in which the floor under the market moved rather than the roof.

The short version: China fob slipped to $207-215/t as Shandong ex-works broke ¥1,280/t, Middle East sulphur contract prices were cut $45-70/t, and the only thing keeping the slide orderly is the absence of a second export allocation.

The week in numbers

What drove the week

The holiday ended, and the market was weaker on the other side of it. China’s market was shut from 1-7 October. When it reopened, fresh trading stayed largely stalled. Participants spent the week focused on securing quota allocations rather than pursuing new business — a tell that the binding constraint is still administrative, not commercial.

Domestic values led, as they have all quarter. Shandong caprolactam-grade moved ¥1,310 → ¥1,290 → ¥1,280/t ex-works across the first two weeks of October. That is a slow bleed, not a collapse, but it is the third consecutive leg down and it has now pulled the domestic benchmark close to the export assessment rather than sitting above it.

Urea turned bearish and took sentiment with it. Urea is not ammonium sulfate, and the two do not substitute in the field. But they share the same buyer psychology and the same nitrogen complex, and when urea expectations reset lower, buyers reprice every other nitrogen product in the same conversation. Prilled urea in Shandong held at ¥1,740/t ex-works, granular at ¥2,000/t — flat, but the forward conversation was lower.

A handful of force majeure declarations kept supply tight. Availability was constrained less by weak production economics than by declared disruptions. That cuts both ways: it supports price, and it makes delivery reliability a genuine differentiator this quarter.

Costs: the floor came down

This is the development worth paying attention to.

Middle East producers cut October sulphur contract prices by $45-70/t. ADNOC set its OSP for Indian subcontinent cargoes at $890/t fob Ruwais, down $70 from September. QatarEnergy fell to $835/t and Kuwait’s KPC to $820/t, both down $45.

The reason was affordability, not supply. Phosphate producers — the largest sulphur consumers — pushed back hard enough to force the cuts. In China the same signal showed up domestically: spot sulphur fell to around ¥7,100/t on the 8th and port inventories rose to about 971,000t, up 48,000t from end-September.

Why this matters for ammonium sulfate: sulphur plus ammonia sets the production-cost floor for synthetic-route material, which is what fills the bottom of the offer stack when by-product grades are tight. That floor has just dropped materially. Our production source guide explains why the routes do not substitute for one another — and why a falling synthetic floor matters most precisely when by-product supply is rationed.

Demand: Europe is the tight spot, Brazil is waiting

Europe is the firmest market in the world right now, and it is tightening for structural reasons. Standard-grade availability has dwindled, sentiment is well supported, and granular activity is quieter. The EU’s ammonium sulfate import quota of 413,000t is now officially exhausted after multiple Chinese vessels discharged at Constanta, Klaipeda and La Pallice in September. The 6.5% import tariff is back in effect, with key origins such as Egypt exempt. One further Chinese cargo, around 20,000t, is expected at Antwerp on 12 October.

That combination — exhausted quota, restored tariff, thin standard-grade supply — is why Chinese compacted is still clearing at €355-365/t fca with deals actually traded, well above what the same material fetches delivered into Brazil. Expectations of higher replacement costs for Chinese material are building in Europe rather than fading.

Brazil is carrying on, but without urgency. Compacted was assessed at $245-255/t cfr, with the bottom of the range set by a few lower offers while most October-November indications sat at $250-255/t. Some suppliers still targeted $260/t and above; nothing was confirmed at those levels. Buying interest was limited, pressured by softer urea and by continuing uncertainty over inspection approvals. Farmers are watching weather — excessive rain in the south, delayed moisture in central areas — rather than the price screen.

Southeast Asia is in seasonal lull. Standard held at $240-250/t cfr on limited Chinese offers, with most of the region at the tail end of its nitrogen application window. Freight from China to Southeast Asia for a 6,000-8,000t bulk vessel was unchanged at $43-46/t.

What buyers should do now

Ask for allocation before you ask for price. A supplier who can confirm approved tonnage for your loading window is worth more than one who offers $5/t less and cannot ship. In a quarter shaped by force majeure and quota rationing, execution is the scarce good.

Separate the two price signals. Domestic Chinese values and export fob are moving together now, which means the usual “domestic is rising, so export will follow” argument no longer works in your favour — it now cuts the other way.

Do not treat the cost drop as an immediate price cut. Sulphur fell, but it feeds through to synthetic-route material first, and the by-product grades that dominate Chinese export supply are constrained by allocation rather than by cost. Expect the cost relief to show up in negotiation leverage before it shows up in quoted numbers.

Match grade to destination, and do not assume interchangeability. Brazil wants compacted or granular; Southeast Asia and ANZ blending programmes want crystalline; Europe is short of standard specifically. The grades price on different bases.

Treat every cfr figure as parcel-specific. Freight remains the most volume-sensitive component of delivered pricing. A Brazil cfr for one parcel size does not transfer to another, and the gap between lowest and highest offers this week was $10/t before freight was even discussed.

Next week’s watch list

The base case into next week: domestic soft, export fob drifting lower, Europe holding firm in isolation, and everything hinging on whether the next allocation round arrives.

Sourcing ammonium sulfate from China

We supply standard, granular (compacted) and crystalline ammonium sulfate from China to agricultural, compound-fertilizer and industrial buyers, loading at Qingdao or Tianjin with full export documentation.

• Ammonium Sulfate — the full grade range and typical specifications
• Granular Ammonium Sulfate — for direct soil application; the grade Brazilian programmes specify
• Crystalline Ammonium Sulfate — for compound fertilizer blending and industrial use
• How to import ammonium sulfate from China — documentation, inspection and shipping, step by step

Send your destination port, the grade you need, your volume and your required loading window, and we will confirm availability and quote on that basis.

On pricing in this article. The figures above are indicative market assessment levels for the grades and bases referenced, drawn from our own market monitoring and published industry data. They are not offers and do not represent a quotation for any specific parcel, origin or shipment window. Ammonium sulfate prices vary with grade, production source, packaging, parcel size, destination and freight, and are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.