Ammonium Sulfate Market Update — September 2026

Ammonium sulfate prices out of China were unchanged in mid-September 2026. Standard caprolactam-grade material held at $195-200/t fob, with compacted product stable at $250-255/t cfr Brazil. On the face of it, a quiet market.

It is not a quiet market. Price stability here reflects a supply that has run out of room to move, not a market in balance.

The number that matters is not the price

Standard ammonium sulfate has been sitting at $195-200/t fob for several assessments in a row. The reason is straightforward: there is very little material left to offer.

Southern Chinese producers have largely exhausted their allocated export volumes for this round. Some northern producers are still holding cargoes and offering, but availability from that side is limited too. Export offers remain scarce across the board.

When supply is this tight, price becomes a secondary signal. The question buyers should be asking is not what does it cost but can I get it, and when can it load.

The second export allocation round is still open

The market is waiting on China’s second round of ammonium sulfate export allocations. Participants expect an announcement by the end of September, but no official confirmation has been issued.

Two points follow from that:

• Plan for scheduling uncertainty. Until allocations are confirmed, shipment windows are subject to allocation availability. Buyers fixing downstream commitments — blending schedules, retail distribution dates, credit-document deadlines — should build in flexibility.
• There is an open question on steel-grade material. Whether steel-grade ammonium sulfate producers will be eligible to export once the second round is released has not been settled. If you buy from that segment, confirm eligibility before committing rather than after.

One procedural detail worth knowing: the 15 September shipment deadline has passed, but enterprises that had already received CIQ approvals under the non-self-regulated category can still load and export. Most of them, however, have already sold the bulk of their volumes.

Why ammonium sulfate is not tracking urea

Urea and ammonium sulfate have diverged, and the reason is structural rather than cyclical.

Urea export pricing in China carries a substantial premium over domestic values — the gap between export fob and the domestic ex-works equivalent. That premium is what moves when quota news lands, which is why urea prices react so sharply to policy signals.

Ammonium sulfate does not carry the same premium. Domestic caprolactam-grade material in Shandong was assessed at ¥1,210/t ex-works, equivalent to roughly $197/t fob — essentially level with the export assessment. With almost no allocation premium in the price, there is very little for quota news to move.

This has a practical implication for buyers comparing the two products: ammonium sulfate pricing is driven by supply availability and the domestic market, not by export policy arbitrage. Reading ammonium sulfate through a urea lens will give you the wrong answer.

What is holding Brazilian prices up

Compacted ammonium sulfate into Brazilian main ports was stable at $250-255/t cfr. Notably, the support here is coming from the supply side rather than demand strength — a firming Chinese market combined with tighter availability.

That distinction matters for how you read the level. A price held up by scarce supply can move quickly if supply returns. It is worth separating “the market is strong because buyers are competing” from “the market is firm because there is nothing to sell.”

For buyers taking CFR positions, the relevant working figure is the netback after the freight package. Freight is a live variable and volume-dependent — it should be quoted for your specific routing and parcel size rather than estimated from a general rate.

What buyers should do in this window

Confirm availability before you confirm price. In a scarcity market, a competitive quotation that cannot be allocated is worth less than a higher one that loads on time.

Treat shipment windows as subject to allocation. Confirm the loading window against the allocation situation, and keep downstream commitments flexible until the window is fixed.

Match your specification to the production source. Ammonium sulfate nitrogen assay varies by production route, and granular product compacted from mixed by-product sources carries a different guaranteed figure than crystalline material from a single high-assay route. Establish which form and source your application requires, then confirm the lot COA against it. Our production source guide covers this in detail.

Confirm physical requirements up front. Colour, particle size distribution, moisture, free acid and insoluble matter all affect whether material suits your end use — particularly for blending, bulk blending lines and industrial applications. These should be confirmed against your specification and the lot COA, not assumed from the grade name.

Where the market goes from here

Three variables are worth watching:

1. The second allocation round. Its timing and volume determine whether supply loosens. An announcement expected by end-September, if it comes, would be the single largest change in the current picture.
2. Whether steel-grade material becomes export-eligible. That would add supply, and could relieve the tightness that is currently supporting prices.
3. Northern producer volumes. Northern suppliers are still holding some cargoes. How long they continue to offer, and at what levels, is the near-term read on whether the scarcity persists.

Until any of those resolve, the sensible posture for buyers is to secure availability and keep delivery schedules flexible, rather than to wait for a price correction that the current supply structure does not obviously support.

On pricing in this article. The figures above are indicative market assessment levels for the standard and compacted grades referenced, drawn from our own market monitoring. They are not offers and do not represent a quotation for any specific parcel, origin or shipment window. Ammonium sulfate prices vary with grade, production source, packaging, parcel size, destination and freight, and are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the sales contract.