Ammonium sulfate week 43, 2026: the allocation arrived, the tonnage did not
A week of allocation news and no tonnage. The second round landed at 1.3-1.7mn t, the split is unpublished, Brazil is covered into December and a 42pc nutrient premium caps how far this can run.
· 4 min read
Week 43 was a week of allocation news and no tonnage. China standard caprolactam-grade held at $215-220/t fob all week. The second export allocation was put at 1.3-1.7mn t, about a third of the first round, and the split — not the total — is what buyers will trade on.
| Market | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Standard, fob China | $215-220/t | low end +$5 |
| Compacted, fob China | $225-240/t | firmer |
| Compacted, cfr Brazil | $255-265/t | −$2.50 midpoint |
| Shandong ex-works | ¥1,240/t | +¥10 (≈$203/t fob) |
Allocation is permission, not supply
The second round was released mid-week and almost nothing moved. At ¥1,240/t ex-works the domestic netback is roughly $203/t fob equivalent, so $215-220/t fob leaves a $12-17/t gap. A seller who can clear material at home does not chase a foreign bid, and the domestic price firmed rather than loosened.
The only hard business was 10,000t of MMA-grade at $173/t fob for December to southeast Asia, $42-47/t below standard — the floor, not a discount: MMA is a narrower grade with a shorter buyer list.
Brazil is covered, and knows it
October arrivals came to 488,000t and 378,000t more is already booked for November. Compacted sits at $255-265/t cfr with a $10-15/t spread inside the country — $265-270 into northern ports such as Santarem, $255 elsewhere. With cover on the water, an election in the air and a moving real, buyers sit still.
Europe, not China, set the floor
Standard fob northwest Europe ran €285-290/t, granular €345-370/t, while Chinese bulk was offered at €375-380/t fca Lübeck. The reason is gas: TTF peaked above €100/MWh and AGF Nitrogen withdrew its offers across all markets while it considers shutdowns in five European countries. Around 5mn t, 28pc of European production, is confirmed offline. A European buyer at €285 is buying nitrogen not exposed to TTF.
London removed 6pc, and dated it
From 26 November 2026 to 31 December 2027 the UK drops import duty of 6-6.5pc on fertilizers, ammonium sulphate included. On a 200t parcel at $215/t that is $2,580-2,800 of duty that stops being payable. It makes any cargo clearing after 26 November worth more than the same cargo clearing before it — so do not discount to win a UK parcel that loads before the date.
What caps the rally
Ammonium sulfate nitrogen is $11.90 per unit N cfr Brazil against $8.38 for granular urea on a Middle East netback, a premium of about 42pc. A blender can move nitrogen between the two products. Supply tightness holds this price but cannot lift it much further.
Next
The Central American tender closes 3 November for 12,000t of compacted or granular grade. One confirmed export at or above $225/t fob confirms the sellers; one at $210 tells you the allocation validity window is doing the work the price could not. Then watch December bookings into Brazil.
Prices as assessed on 30 October 2026. Market information from our own trading desks; figures are indicative and move daily. Terms are quoted per inquiry and confirmed in the contract.
Frequently asked questions
What was the ammonium sulfate price in week 43 of 2026?
China standard caprolactam-grade held at $215-220/t fob for the whole week, with the low end $5 firmer than a week earlier. Compacted was $225-240/t fob, with confirmed deals in the mid-$220s and firm offers held at $240/t. Compacted into Brazil slipped to $255-265/t cfr, southeast Asia was steady at $250-260/t cfr, and Shandong caprolactam-grade ex-works firmed to ¥1,240/t, about $203/t fob equivalent.
How large is China's second ammonium sulfate export allocation?
Estimated at 1.3-1.7mn t, roughly one third of the first round, and still waiting on customs approval. The split is not published. Market participants suggest compactors may receive around 40pc or less, which matters more than the total, because a compacted tonne and a standard tonne are not interchangeable in Brazil.
Why did the price not fall when the allocation was released?
Because allocation is permission to ship, not tonnage to ship. At ¥1,240/t ex-works the domestic netback is around $203/t fob equivalent, so $215-220/t fob leaves a $12-17/t gap. Sellers who can clear material at home are not chasing a foreign bid, and the domestic price firmed this week rather than loosening.
What caps the ammonium sulfate price from here?
Substitution. Ammonium sulfate nitrogen is about $11.90 per unit N cfr Brazil against $8.38 per unit N for granular urea on a Middle East netback, a premium of roughly 42pc. A blender can move nitrogen between the two products. Supply tightness holds this price, but it cannot lift it much further on its own.
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Ammonium sulfate
(NH4)2SO4 · 21-0-0-24S · crystalline and granular